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Observations & Conversations
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Observations & Conversations Based on the climate at this year's Vegas convention, it appears that at the moment the retail industry is still going strong We survived another Vegas Convention! It was a truly great show. Some people described it as their best show ever. Retailers were out in full force on the convention floor. I spent some time with the folks at Burlington Coat Factory, Steve & Barry’s, Urban Brands and their entourage. Lunched with CVS. I bumped into a real estate guy from Dillard’s and another from Staples and I spotted Dress Barn. Lots and lots of food tenants looking for sites and the Quiznos’ booth was buzzing. I kibbutzed with a leasing agent from Radio Shack and a principal at 10 Spot. I met up with old friends from several supermarket chains. PWS’s booth was busy too, as was AutoZone and The Learning Experience. Plus, I spent time visiting with a number of retail reps for Duane Reade at Winick and Coldstone Creamery with Schuckman; Royal Properties was running with 20 or so chains, Welco had just as many, and Northwest Atlantic was going strong on Costco deals. All but one of these encounters with a potential tenant was a prearranged appointment. So, don’t complain about not enough retailers being at the show… maybe not the perfect tenant for your site, but if you stepped outside of your booth or didn’t book every second of your time so you could mingle you would have met more. Mind you I sat in on a number of appointments, but there’s no way I could sit still long enough for back-to-back appointments for eight hours straight.
The biggest hit at the show were the kosher hot dogs at Thor ,promoting their Coney Island project. I had a chance to meet with a number of developers too. I met some of the new blood at Cafaro and had a chance to visit with one of the grandsons that’s stepping up to the plate. His brother, who’s also running the show, was in a meeting, but the half I met appears to have a good head on his shoulders. I bumped into the folks at Developers Realty and New England Retail Properties. Acadia was aggressive on acquisitions at the show. American Financial Trust was on the warpath to acquire bank leaseholds and release them. Eastern Union’s booth was packed. LandAmerica stopped by our booth, as did Across America… fun people to work with. I visited with Rod Castan at Courtelis and a big congrats on his recent appointment at the ICSC Florida State Director. While on the subject of congrats, it’s official one of my best friends in the industry, Tom Mirandi at RD Management, has been promoted to vice president and he has about 200 centers that they’re leasing and managing. Cotswold was knocking on doors looking for acquisitions.We had a nice chat with DJM about their Wal*Mart dispositions. I had a chance to visit friends from Lamar and to hear what’s going on at Fameco with their new national leasing account. Bumped into Brunelli and got the update on his daughters joining the business. An old friend from Epsteen & Associates dropped by. I also had a chance to visit with the guys at Site Source. DLC stopped by our booth on Sunday for a nice chat while we got everything set up. During the GVA party at Nobu, I bumped into a friend from Rivercrest. I couldn’t make the Forest City party at Wynn, but my office said it was an elegant get together. I missed the Next Gen party at the Hard Rock too, but my son said he had a good time there and that he met a lot of people. I also heard the Welco party was a blast. Of course I went to the New York Developers party, the industry’s annual Bar Mitzvah. Tuesday night is always reserved for me to spend time with my friends from Mall Properties, Breslin, DLC and Levin. A macha from Spandrel dropped by our booth and I got a good education on the retail scene in Brooklyn. Winick threw quite a party with lots of eye candy… I’m certain that I was the oldest woman in the room! (Oh no… now everybody will be bugging Jeff for an invite!) Gibraltar Management hosted an intimate dinner that’s always enjoyable with spicey humor and lots of laughs. I closed out the show visiting with a macha at Hauck Holdings and my dear friends from Paster Enterprises and capping it off with boisterous laughter, lots of martinis (Ted later told me that I did manage to restrain myself from dancing on the table, but just barely... oh well, life’s too short not to have a good time when you can!) and a delicious dinner hosted by Kin Properties. I even got presents at the show too, a Mont Blanc pen with my name engraved on it from P.P.I. , a cool CD of beach music from Hanley Brown, a CD holder from Courtelis, brownies from Shary Thur and truffles from LandAmerica. All in all, not only did I walk away with good prospects for new business, I really had a great time catching up with old friends and making some new ones.
The major concerns I heard voiced on the convention floor were higher interest rates, energy prices, a possible recession and the new layout for next year’s convention in Vegas. A number of financiers at the show are predicting interest rates as high as 5.75% by the end of the summer. For the first time in decades, I actually heard companies pitching alternative energy sources to developers on the convention floor. Developers are more concerned that shoppers have gas in their tank than they are on conserving/saving money for their tenants, but it was interesting to watch the pendulum swing back from the late 70’s. I remember years ago, I worked on a project that generated its own energy and what a fiasco. The owner made it his own little profit center and gauged the tenants so unmercifully the center ended up being 100% vacant. A lot of old pro’s that I talked with at the show are expecting the economy to weaken in the next 18 to 24 months. I’m not smart enough to predict, but our economy has weathered well in the aftermath of 9-11, Katrina, war in Afghanistan and Iraq, criminal indictments in the White House, more restatements of financials from publicly traded companies than I can ever remember and a presidential approval rating lower than during the Nixon debacle. So, it’s anybody’s guess on where we’ll be in two years, but based on the climate at this year’s Vegas convention it appears that at the moment the retail industry is still going strong.
Straight from the convention, the O’Neal-Kraus family flew to Houston, then Dallas and checked into the Four Seasons for a good nights rest only to be back on the road the following morning at 6:00 to drive to my folks house (the beach music from Hanley Brown came in handy, we had it memorized by the end of our drive!). Followed by more driving to Louisiana for their 50th Anniversary party, where we spent the evening with 150 family and friends, some of which I hadn’t seen in 30 years. Needless to say it was a good time and I got my fill of gumbo and bread pudding (the South’s equivalent to chicken soup and kugel) and Whataburger. But getting home on Sunday to my dogs, my shower and especially my bed was the best part of our 11 day trip that started with the Vegas show. Next month, we’ll be in Boston for the ICSC New England’s States Dealmaking and during August, we’ll be at the ICSC Florida show. So, if I didn’t have a chance to visit with you in Vegas, look me up in Boston or Orlando. Until next month, Ann O’Neal, Publisher |